Market status and development prospect forecast analysis of China's dairy industry

China Business Intelligence Network News: Milk is rich in nutrients and can provide a variety of proteins and active peptides for the human body, supplement human calcium, and improve bone density. It is suitable for most people to drink at all ages, and its nutritional value is worldwide. It has been widely recognized and valued.

Dairy products refer to the use of cow's milk or goat's milk and its processed products as the main raw materials, with or without the addition of appropriate amounts of vitamins, minerals, and other auxiliary materials, using the conditions required by laws, regulations, and standards, and processed into various products, which is also called cream products.

Market scale

From the perspective of market composition, ordinary liquid milk is still the largest market segment, followed by high-end liquid milk, which accounted for nearly 30% of the market in 2019.

The ordinary liquid milk market has developed steadily, and its retail revenue has increased from 75.9 billion yuan in 2015 to 134.5 billion yuan in 2019. The average annual compound growth rate of retail sales from 2015 to 2019 is 5.5%. High-end liquid milk has been particularly popular in recent years. It is expected that the growth rate of this market scale will slow down in 2020. By 2021, the scale of high-end liquid milk in China is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan, and the growth rate is much higher than that of ordinary liquid milk.

Upstream and downstream industries

The complete industrial chain of the dairy manufacturing industry mainly covers business links such as forage grass feed, dairy cattle breeding, dairy processing, logistics sales, etc. It has the characteristics of involving three major industries of the national economy at the same time, namely animal husbandry in the primary industry and livestock in the secondary industry. Food processing and logistics retail in the tertiary industry.

At the same time, raw milk is fresh and perishable and needs to be cooled, collected, stored, transported, and processed in a timely manner. Therefore, all links in the dairy industry chain are closely linked, which poses challenges to the supply chain management and control of dairy manufacturing enterprises. Problems will affect product quality and food safety.

Market supply and demand and reasons for changes

With the improvement of living standards, consumers pay more attention to the improvement of a dietary structure, and the consumer demand for dairy products shows a steady upward trend. From 2015 to 2019, the total sales of China's dairy products market increased from 326.4 billion yuan to 459.4 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 9%. From the perspective of dairy supply, from 2013 to 2019, China's dairy production also showed a similar steady growth trend, from 25.4519 million tons to 27.194 million tons, a growth rate of 6.83%.

In terms of changes in supply and demand, changes in the growth of per capita disposable income and structural changes in consumption upgrades are important reasons for changes in market supply and demand in the food industry. Consumption upgrading not only brings about changes in consumption but also changes in consumption structure. Basic food consumption, such as grain, oil, rice, and noodles, has gradually slowed down the growth rate of the total expenditure in the dietary structure, while the consumption of food such as eggs, milk, melons, and fruits has steadily increased, and has gradually become an important part of the residents' dietary structure.

Future development prospects

1. Policy planning to support industry development

In recent years, the State Council, the Ministry of Agriculture (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs), the National Development and Reform Commission, and other departments have successively issued the "National Dairy Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)", etc., and determined to optimize the regional layout, strengthen the construction of milk source bases, and develop standardization. A number of policy plans to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the dairy industry, such as large-scale farming, the establishment and improvement of a standardized production system, and the improvement of dairy production efficiency.

2. Consumption upgrading promotes industrial upgrading

The consumption upgrade of dairy products in China has mainly been reflected in the upgrade and transformation from a long shelf-life product at room temperature to products with a short shelf life at low temperature that pursues freshness, nutrition, and health. Since low-temperature dairy products require cold chain transportation, with the increase in urbanization rate and the development of rural retail systems in the future, low-temperature dairy products will have a large market space and become a new driving force for the growth of enterprises in the industry.